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Aprea Therapeutics, Inc. (APRE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 results modestly beat S&P Global consensus: grant revenue $0.206M vs $0.150M estimate and EPS $(0.49) vs $(0.69) estimate; EBITDA loss also narrower than expected, reflecting disciplined OpEx and interest income support [functions.GetEstimates]*.
  • Pipeline execution advanced: APR-1051 moved into Cohort 5 (70 mg) with no hematologic toxicity to date; ATRN-119 added a BID regimen (550 mg BID) to maximize target coverage; both programs target open-label/dose-escalation milestones in H2 2025 .
  • Cash and equivalents were $22.8M at 12/31/24; runway extended into Q1 2026, reducing near-term financing overhang while the company approaches clinical data catalysts in 2H25 .
  • Guidance cadence shifted: ACESOT-1051 open-label data moved to H2 2025 (from H1 2025 in prior communications), while ABOYA-119’s dose-escalation completion is also targeted for H2 2025; BID addition aims to improve efficacy and de-risk the ATR program .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • APR-1051 safety profile remains favorable with “no hematologic toxicity” reported to date, and enrollment progressed to Cohort 5 (70 mg), supporting the best-in-class thesis for WEE1 selectivity and tolerability .
  • ATRN-119’s BID schedule introduced to enhance 24-hour target coverage, with management positioning the macrocyclic ATR inhibitor as first-in-class and potentially differentiated on safety and continuous dosing .
  • Operating discipline: Q4 operating loss improved YoY to $(3.23)M from $(3.67)M, with G&A down YoY; EPS improved to $(0.49) vs $(0.92) in Q4’23 .

What Went Wrong

  • Clinical timelines slipped: ACESOT-1051 open-label data shifted from H1 2025 (prior guidance) to H2 2025; ABOYA-119’s Phase 1 readout also moved to H2 2025, extending the catalyst window .
  • R&D rose YoY on trial activity and personnel costs, increasing cash burn despite lower G&A; R&D was $2.36M in Q4’24 vs $2.05M in Q4’23 .
  • Cash decreased sequentially to $22.8M (12/31/24) from $26.2M (9/30/24) as trials advanced, though runway now extends into Q1 2026 .

Financial Results

Quarterly Actuals: YoY and Sequential Trends

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Grant Revenue ($USD)$14,075 $561,574 $354,621 $205,817
R&D Expense ($USD)$2,045,689 $2,557,679 $2,846,399 $2,359,086
G&A Expense ($USD)$1,643,315 $1,850,819 $1,605,238 $1,072,776
Operating Loss ($USD)$(3,674,929) $(3,846,924) $(4,097,016) $(3,226,045)
Net Loss ($USD)$(3,443,254) $(3,470,052) $(3,783,769) $(2,894,799)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.92) $(0.58) $(0.64) $(0.49)
Cash & Equivalents (period-end, $USD)$21,606,820 (12/31/23) $28,694,694 (6/30/24) $26,249,625 (9/30/24) $22,849,885 (12/31/24)

Q4 2024 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricQ4 2024 ActualQ4 2024 Consensus
Grant Revenue ($USD)$205,817 $150,000*
EBITDA ($USD)$(3,220,617) (SPGI actual)*$(4,400,000)*
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.49) $(0.6867)*
Estimates Coverage—Revenue: 3; EPS: 3 (estimates count)*

Values marked with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown

  • Not applicable (clinical-stage biotech; no commercial segments) .

KPIs and Operational Metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024 (Current)
APR-1051 (ACESOT-1051) Enrollment StatusTrial initiated; early cohorts; no myelosuppression observed Cleared Cohort 3; started Cohort 4 (50 mg); prelim safety favorable Enrolling Cohort 5 (70 mg); no hematologic toxicity to date
ATRN-119 (ABOYA-119) DosingQD dose escalation ongoing (50–550 mg) QD up to 800 mg; protocol to add BID; prelim benefit at low doses QD 1100 mg and BID 550 mg arms running in parallel
Safety HeadlinesNo hematologic toxicity noted for ATRN-119 to-date; continuous dosing focus —No hematologic toxicity for APR-1051 to-date
Cash RunwayInto Q4 2025 “At least 12 months” from 11/7/24 10-Q issuance Into Q1 2026

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
ACESOT-1051 open-label safety/efficacy dataProgram milestoneH1 2025 (Q3’24 comms) H2 2025 Lowered/Delayed
ACESOT-1051 dose escalation completionProgram milestoneH2 2025 (deck Q3’24: complete dose escalation H2’25) H1 2026 Lowered/Delayed
ABOYA-119 Phase 1 readout / dose escalationProgram milestoneH1 2025 (Q2’24) → H2 2025 (Q3’24) H2 2025 (maintained) Maintained vs Q3 (later than Q2)
ATRN-119 BID regimenTrial designProtocol amendment planned (Q3’24) Implemented; 550 mg BID cohort dosed Raised (design enhancement)
Cash runwayLiquidityInto Q4 2025 (Q2’24) Into Q1 2026 Raised/Extended

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available; themes derived from company press releases and filings.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
R&D execution and dose escalationAPR-1051 trial initiated; early cohorts; ATRN-119 QD escalation progressing APR-1051 in Cohort 5 (70 mg); ATRN-119 QD 1100 mg and BID 550 mg arms Improving execution; broader dosing
Safety/tolerabilityNo myelosuppression for APR-1051 (early cohort); ATRN-119 tolerated with no hematologic DLTs APR-1051: “no hematologic toxicity”; ATRN-119 BID introduced to optimize coverage Positive, consistent safety narrative
Milestone timingInitial guidance pointed to H1 2025 readouts Open-label/Phase 1 milestones moved to H2 2025 Slower timeline
Financing runwayInto Q4 2025 Into Q1 2026 Improved
IP/strategyActive poster presentations/EORTC-NCI-AACR; advisor additions Corporate deck updates; ongoing IP expansion Steady build

Management Commentary

  • “We made excellent progress across our pipeline in 2024, laying a strong foundation for the year ahead… APR-1051… appears safe and well tolerated to date with no hematologic toxicity… The ongoing ABOYA-119 trial is now evaluating ATRN-119 as continuous once daily and twice daily monotherapy in order to maximize therapeutic benefit.” — Oren Gilad, Ph.D., President & CEO .
  • “Patients are now being enrolled in Cohort 5 (70 mg dose)… No hematological toxicities have been observed to date.” (ACESOT-1051) .
  • “ATRN-119… patients are currently being enrolled at Dose Level 7, with both 1100 mg once daily and 550 mg twice daily doses being evaluated independently and in parallel… [BID] expected to… provide better target coverage and maximal clinical benefit.” (ABOYA-119) .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available; the company’s press release and 8-K provided the quarter’s financial and operational updates .

Estimates Context

  • APRE delivered a clean beat on EPS and revenue versus S&P Global consensus: EPS $(0.49) vs $(0.6867) est; revenue $0.206M vs $0.150M est; EBITDA loss was also narrower than estimated (actual $(3.22)M vs est $(4.40)M), consistent with lower G&A YoY and operating discipline [functions.GetEstimates]*.
  • With clinical milestones pushed to H2 2025, estimate revisions may trend toward reduced near-term OpEx volatility (given cadence), but investors should model increased trial costs at higher dose levels and potential enrollment expansion into 2025; runway into Q1 2026 mitigates near-term financing assumptions .

Values marked with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term catalysts reset to H2 2025: open-label safety/efficacy (APR-1051) and ABOYA-119 dose-escalation milestones are the primary stock drivers; monitor interim conference updates and site activations .
  • Differentiation narrative intact: APR-1051’s “no hematologic toxicity” to date and WEE1 selectivity vs PLKs supports best-in-class positioning; ATRN-119’s macrocyclic design and BID regimen aim to enhance efficacy via continuous target coverage .
  • Extending runway to Q1 2026 reduces financing overhang into key 2H25 data windows, potentially improving setup into catalysts despite timeline push-outs .
  • Operating discipline evident (YoY improvements in operating loss and EPS), but R&D will likely rise into later-stage cohorts; model cash burn accordingly against $22.8M year-end cash .
  • Expect estimate fine-tuning: consensus may adjust for delayed milestones and BID implementation; current quarter beat suggests some cushion vs near-term EPS/EBITDA expectations while trial costs scale [functions.GetEstimates]* .
  • Watch program transitions: ACESOT-1051 dose-escalation toward RP2D and ABOYA-119’s parallel QD/BID paths—successful dose selection could be a prelude to expansion cohorts and partnership optionality .

Values marked with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.